Argus

•

Apr 01, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

The stock market raced higher on the last day of March, cutting into both monthly and quarterly losses that were quite ugly just a day earlier. It seems like President Trump may have had enough of low stock prices, high energy costs, and the possible political cost from the war in Iran. Interpreting his position is an increasingly interesting task -- but for at least a day, stocks rallied based on what appeared to be a goal to end the war sooner than later, even if there is not a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.  Despite the huge one-day gains, the intermediate-term technical trend for stocks remains difficult. Positioning has become, at times, the most important dynamic to monitor on Wall Street. Indeed, going into month end, we saw quite a few reports that hedge funds have been huge sellers of late. And when everyone is on one side of the fence, all you need is a spark for trigger-happy traders and algorithms to not only cover their shorts, but often buy into price strength.    The S&P 500 (SPX) blasted higher by almost 3% on Tuesday, the Nasdaq popped 3.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 reclaimed 3.4%. Those are the largest one-day moonshots since May 12, 2025 (which

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