Argus

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Mar 24, 2026

Summary

The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the crude oil benchmark grade, had declined steadily for four years. But it has soared into triple-digit territory in recent weeks due to the war in Iran. Iran is not a major producer of oil (3% of the global total), but the country has responded to being attacked by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers moving about 20% of the world's oil supply travel. Although President Trump has now called off missile strikes in the region, oil prices at $90 per barrel remain more than 60% above their lows for the year. And they may stay elevated for a while, as attacks have damaged gas fields and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. For 2026, our oil price forecast now calls for $75 per barrel, up from our prior forecast of $60, and our forecast trading range is now $50-$120. That compares to an average price of $65 in 2025, $77 in 2024, $80 in 2023, and $95 in 2022. The core drivers behind oil prices over the long term come from Econ 101: global supply and demand.  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

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